Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
