A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
